#8: Predicting the unpredictable
The state of uncertainty, what that means in the world of work, and how to cope with it.
Future-gazing, trend-prediction, forecasting - it’s all questionable at the best of times, but right now we’re facing uncertainty like never before. Ironically, on a day to day basis, we know exactly what to expect. We’ll work, eat, sleep, and repeat in the same 500 square feet. But when we rub our Zoom-fatigued eyes and try to squint into the middle distance, well, it’s pretty hard to see where we’ll end up. Apparently, we’ll be in a new normal, but what that will look like, and when we’ll get there, is anyone’s guess.
This week we’re exploring what an uncertain future means for the world of work and those trying to navigate it. Before we throw you into an existential crisis, we’ve curated a host of resources and tools to help you embrace the unknown on both a company and personal level.
On another note - we’re delighted to introduce you to the Work Daze Library - take a quick look here or sign up on Airtable to get access to the full view! This is where we’ll be collating all resources past, present, and future, including the ones that got away. Do take it for a spin and let us know any feedback and suggestions - collective knowledge is the best.
Stay unpredictable,
Milly & Yumi
For all the lamenting of ‘unprecedented uncertainty’, the state we find ourselves in - with our clouded crystal balls - it isn’t actually just 2020’s fault. In 1987 the concept of a VUCA world - volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous - was coined and gained mainstream corporate credence in 2002.
More recently, but still pre-pandemic, the pace of change was only continuing to accelerate exponentially - creating an era of 3-D change (yes, that’s an HBR term, don’t blame us, we’re just the jargon messengers). Uncertainty can be unnerving on both a personal and company level, but it’s looking likely it will be a defining factor of this weird world we’re hurtling headfirst into.
So, with that in mind, let’s take a turn for the oxymoronic and dive into seven predictions on the future of uncertainty and what not knowing means for the world of work.
Small and early-stage businesses will have an advantage over creaky old incumbents where, in the context of uncertainty, agility is the name of the game. We’ll continue to see more pivoting than Ross from Friends.
Those that are comfortable with being uncomfortable will find an uncertain world of work easier to navigate. We’ve already seen the death of the predictable corporate career ladder and the birth of the squiggly career.
We’ll look to tools and tactics from fields outside of ‘work’ to learn how to deal with the unknown. Such as the worry diary exercise. Used in psychotherapy to help people with Generalised Anxiety Disorder, it focuses on observing worry as a process rather than focusing on the content. Not to be confused with worrying about how much you have in your diary.
Traditional eastern spiritual philosophies might just have a place in the office. (Phil-office-y? No? Ok). See The Power of Now - teachings about living in the present moment and transcending thoughts of the past or future.
Gaming, role-playing, scenario planning will move from the realm of entertaining away day exercises to seriously useful regular practices. Calling all LARPers - we need your help.
Traditionally female-associated traits such as humility and empathy will be those most needed for leadership in the age of the unknown. We’ve seen this in action throughout the pandemic (Jacinda 4eva) this FT article frames the concept in a useful way.
People will refuse to accept the uncomfortable nature of uncertainty and continue to make predictions as though they are Paul the Octopus reincarnate. Guilty as charged.
For dealing with uncertainty
Scenario Planning exercise
In times of doubt, we’re big fans of this exercise. Pick two axes and go crazy on the brainstorming - the aim is not to predict what will happen but assess how well equipped you are to handle a particular situation. Here’s our worked example and a template for you to download.
We had some fun with this one as you can tell. Stanford’s Library of Ambiguity
Possibly one of the best names for a library and a treasure trove of resources for handling the unknown from Stanford’s d.school.Cynefin Framework
Pronounced kuh-nev-in for those of us who are unfamiliar with Welsh, this is the go-to framework for making sense of different decision-making contexts. Look into this and you’ll find out what distinguishes a complex situation from a complicated one, and maybe even pick up some wisdom to impress your co-workers at that next strategy meeting.
Cynefin Framework Uncertain Times
If you’ve been paying attention to our previous issues, you might have seen this one before. What you might have missed though are some extra resources for taking action on something you care about and planning next steps - we like how they ease you into expressing your feelings (read: existential turmoil) and coming up with concrete actions.
For even deeper reflection
The professionals who predict the future for a living
Armed with sophisticated technology and years of experience, these people, more than anyone, are positioned to give us an insight into the future. Don’t worry, there’ll be no spoilers - just some interesting reflections on how to move forward.Knowledge and Uncertainty by Brilliant
For those who want to take ‘destination unknown’ to the next level, take a look at this series of mini-courses by Brilliant. In no time, you’ll name-drop Bayesian decision theory and causal inference - if this doesn’t earn you street cred, nothing will.
For some cultural exploration
Before Sunrise by Richard Linklater
If you haven’t seen Linklater’s Before Trilogy, you’re missing out on one of cinema’s most charming relationship stories. In line with our theme, there’s nothing predictable about where the main characters are heading but you can’t help but wonder about where they will end up.
As each film is set nine years on from the one before, original viewers had to be quite the pros at embracing a long wait - you have Youtube though, so go ahead and indulge in a high-quality binge-watching sesh.
Human Spectacle episode by This American Life podcast
A Japanese man goes for an audition and gets trapped in a reality-tv show, where he is forced to collect magazine coupons to earn a living and get out. All while having no idea that he is being broadcast on national television. Trust us, the most challenging escape rooms have nothing on this story.
And for a different perspective
The New Yorker does (joke) horoscopes… pretty accurate if you ask us. Read yours here.
Hope uncertainty becomes a little bit more comfortable today. Thanks for reading, and see you in a couple of weeks!
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Great! Thanks so much for the wisdom and laughs! Much appreciated!